Core Definition (BLUF)
Pattern of life (POL) is the recurring rhythm of a person, group, or place: where they go, when, with whom, by what means, and what “normal” looks like. Anomalies require a baseline. Timed effects require a rhythm. POL is how reconnaissance becomes predictive.
Doctrinal Framework
- Used across intelligence, targeting, and surveillance practice in open professional literature and doctrine-adjacent tradecraft
- Coverage: partial / practice-based digest (not a single governing FM section in this garden)
- Interfaces: targeting, protection, collection management, influence timing
Mechanics
Build a baseline
Collect across enough samples that one anomalous day does not define the model:
- anchors (residence, work, gym, school, venue)
- movement corridors and time bands
- companions and vehicles
- digital rhythms if tasked and lawful (posting, login windows)
- security habits (when lights go on, when gates close)
Grade confidence
- Observed repeatedly vs single sighting
- Corroborated vs single source
- Weekday vs weekend models (they often differ)
Use POL
| Use | Question |
|---|---|
| Targeting / effects | When is the target exposed, fixed, or separated from security? |
| Protection | When is the protected party most predictable and therefore most vulnerable? |
| Surveillance / recon | When must collection be present to answer a PIR? |
| Deception / influence | What routine does the audience already believe is normal? |
Refresh
POL rots. Travel, seasons, relationships, and threat response change rhythms. Version the product and re-collect after major life or operational changes.
Application
Protective intelligence and attack planning are mirror images of the same POL file. Maintain POL on protected parties and understand how an adversary would build POL on those same parties. Close easy seams: fixed departure times, same route, same venue table, same plate. Feed refined windows into CARVER Matrix accessibility/vulnerability scores and into Surveillance Detection baselining.
Related Concepts
Collection methods: Urban Reconnaissance, Non-Urban Reconnaissance.
Detection: Surveillance Detection.
Targeting: CARVER Matrix, Center of Gravity.
Failure Modes
- Baseline of one day treated as law.
- Confirmation bias: seeing only the pattern wanted.
- Unlawful or unethical collection dressed as research.
- Never refreshing after the subject changes lifestyle or security posture.